By DN Verma

Pakistan has often been labeled as the Failed State, Fountainhead of Terrorism and also the Chaotic State. It is certainly living up to all those. Now with the key political ally, Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), deciding to withdraw its nominees from the cabinet of the ruling party, the Pakistan Peoples Party of the late Benazir Bhutto, the situation is certainly become more chaotic.

This is a hard blow for PPP which was already fragile, faced with economic and natural disasters, and unable to reign in extremist violence with almost daily killings in various parts of the country. Now with MQM's decision to quit, the situation becomes terrifying even for the US military that is trying to oust Pakistani Taliban despite the double dealing of the government and its ISI.

MQM has 25 members in the National Assembly and if they join the opposition, the ruling party will not have the required 172 seats to continue in the majority. If the government fails to get support from other groups and falls it would follow the pattern of civilian governments in Pakistan not completing their terms.

In case the government goes for new elections it would have to face the possibility of hard liners coming to power backed by the radical Islamist groups. Those elements would not be pro-US, might not favor a political, economic and strategic alliance with the Americans, the leaders of NATO forces in Afghanistan and the main ally of Pakistan.

The problem with Pakistan is its dominance by the military that has left the country with continued economic woes, too much dependence on American financial and military aid, and also pressures by the religious groups. The current government is weak and quite unpopular, and the Jamiat Ulema Islam's quitting it earlier and joining the opposition has made matters worse. However, there is no guarantee that any other government will be more effective. So the chaotic situation continues, for now.

JUI insists that Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani should resign or be removed by Zardari. Their leader, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, has publicly demanded that. The Maulana is of the opinion that Gilani has caused more tension within the coalition parties.

MQM is unhappy with the government on its handling of political situation and the conditions in Karachi, the largest city in Pakistan with more than 16 million people, where the party has a sizable presence and interests.

Asif Ali Zardari-led PPP had won a majority in February 2008 elections just weeks following the assassination of party's leader, former Prime Minister, and his wife Benazir Bhutto. A few months later Zardari became the President forcing the military ruler-turned civilian President General Pervez Musharraf to quit. [Musharraf now is outside the country and has formed a political party, currently in Britain.]

However, the euphoria, enthusiasm and sympathy for of PPP and its government has faded. Zardari himself was never a popular leader, on the contrary was quite hated for his corruption and self-interest. Under him the nation has gone down in every sphere of life. Also increasing American military offensive against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda with drone attacks have not gone down well with the tribal leaders.

Even the Pakistani military offensive against terror groups is quite unpopular with various groups in the border area with Afghanistan.

The PPP and its allies have always had an uneasy relationship on several issues. There is the demand from international donors to effect changes in the complicated tax laws. Then the more moderates want reforms in the dreaded blasphemy laws that are absolutely unfair to the minorities and have even abused by the extremist Muslims to terrorize minorities and also to settle personal enmity. The talks about changes have brought massive protests in some major cities further complicating matters.

According to Associated Press in case there are new elections and the new leadership emerges," it will be faced with the same seemingly intractable challenges as their predecessors: a feeble economy, chronic power shortages and rebuilding after last year's horrendous floods.

And they will have to navigate the delicate partnership between their military, the nation's most powerful institution, and the U.S., which provides billions in aid, to target Al-Qaida and Taliban fighters who use Pakistani territory to plan attacks on Western troops in neighboring Afghanistan.

The current government "is not only too weak to meet the U.S.'s short-term priorities even if it wanted to, it's already too weak to meets the long-term priorities that would give Pakistan stability," said Anthony Cordesman, an analyst for the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Cordesman said the stability of a nuclear weapons-armed Pakistan is a higher strategic priority for the U.S. than the future of Afghanistan. If Pakistan came under Islamist extremist rule, it would be far more threatening as an Al-Qaida sanctuary than Afghanistan ever could be, he said.

If the government does fall, the biggest beneficiary would likely be Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League, which would be expected to win the most seats. In recent days, he declared that his main opposition party could bring about a "revolution" in Pakistan, according to local news reports.

The PML-N is more aligned with religious conservatives than the PPP or the MQM, and it has not been as vocal in opposing the Taliban - a position that could cause discomfort in Washington. However, the US officials are not entirely certain about Sharif's stand on the counterterrorism partnership between the two countries. Anyway, Sharif would not like to alienate the US because of billions of dollars in aid coming to Pakistan.

The Nation newspaper reported that "the government is also faced with the phenomenal and seemingly unstoppable rise in prices, mounting insecurity and growing unemployment; in short, those very goods that are essential to survival are progressively going out of their reach. Only the privileged classes are not affected.

"The general run of people, largely illiterate though, are politically conscious enough not to be taken in by Zardari's promise that the remaining two years in the PPP's term of office would see their problems sorted out; they have before them its record of the past three years that reeks of loot and plunder and mismanagement.

"Clearly, the MQM left the cabinet in reaction to Sindh Home Minister Zulfiqar Mirza's charge that the party was behind the target killings in Karachi, the charge that he has refused to retract despite the MQM's ultimatum of 10 days. The government sources, Minister Babar Awan for instance, have, however, been proclaiming that all would be well, and the MQM's complaints met. The MQM has also left the door open to get back into the cabinet, though its grievances about land holdings and taxing the rich, and not further squeezing the poor, have little chance of being heeded to. "

With the complexities in Pakistan's politics and problems faced by the coalition government the next couple weeks may see drastic steps. New alignments might be tried but not sure; new elections might be announced for new combinations to emerge. One thing is certain that Zardari will not be disturbed as his term will last till 2013. He is clever, knew where things will head to and had settled for the President's job to remain safe for at least five years.