By John F. Harris
Presidential politics is about storytelling. Presented with a vivid storyline, voters naturally tend to fit every
new event or piece of information into a picture that is already neatly framed in their minds.
No one understands this better than Barack Obama and his team, who won the 2008 election in part because they were
better storytellers than the opposition. The pro-Obama narrative featured an almost mystically talented young idealist who
stood for change in a disciplined and thoughtful way. This easily out powered the anti-Obama narrative, featuring an opportunistic
Chicago pol with dubious relationships who was more liberal than he was letting on.
1. Signs of faltering
A year into his presidency, however,
Obama's gift for controlling his image shows signs of faltering. As Washington returns to work there are several anti-Obama
storylines gaining momentum.
The Obama White House argues that
all these storylines are inaccurate or unfair. In some cases these anti-Obama narratives are fanned by Republicans, in some
cases by reporters and commentators.
But they all are serious
threats to Obama, if they gain enough currency to become the dominant frame through which people interpret the president's
actions and motives.
Here are seven storylines Obama needs
to worry about:
2. He thinks he's playing with Monopoly money
Economists and business leaders from across the ideological
spectrum were urging the new president on last winter when he signed onto more than a trillion in stimulus spending and bank
and auto bailouts during his first weeks in office. Many, though far from all, of these same people now agree that these actions
helped avert an even worse financial catastrophe.
Along the
way, however, it is clear Obama underestimated the political consequences that flow from the perception that he is a profligate
spender. He also misjudged the anger in middle America about bailouts with weak and sporadic public explanations of why he
believed they were necessary.
The flight of independents away
from Democrats last summer - the trend that recently hammered Democrats in off-year elections in Virginia - coincided with
what polls show was alarm among these voters about undisciplined big government and runaway spending. The passage of healthcare
reform package criticized as weak on cost-control will definitely compound the problem.
Obama understands the political peril. The political challenge, however, is an even bigger substantive challenge
- since the most convincing way to project fiscal discipline would be actually to impose spending reductions that would cramp
his own agenda and that of congressional Democrats.
3. Too
much Leonard Nimoy
People used to make fun of Bill Clinton's
misty-eyed, raspy-voiced claims that, "I feel your pain."
The reality, however, is that Clinton's dozen years as governor before becoming president really did leave him with
a vivid sense of the concrete human dimensions of policy. He did not view programs as abstractions - he viewed them in terms
of actual people he knew by name.
Obama, a legislator and law
professor, is fluent in describing the nuances of problems. But his intellectuality has contributed to a growing critique
that decisions are detached from rock-bottom principles.
Both
Maureen Dowd in The New York Times and Joel Achenbach of the Washington Post have likened him to Star Trek's Mr. Spock.
The Spock imagery has been especially strong during the extended review Obama has
undertaken of Afghanistan policy. No soldier wants to take a bullet in the name of nuance.
4. That's the Chicago Way
This is a storyline that's likely taken root more firmly in Washington than
around the country. The rap is that his West Wing is dominated by brass-knuckled pols.
It does not help that many West Wing aides seem to relish an image of themselves as shrewd, brass-knuckled political
types. In a Washington Post story, White House deputy chief of staff Jim Messina, referring to most of Obama's team, said,
"We are all campaign hacks."
The problem is that
many voters took Obama seriously in 2008 when he talked about wanting to create a more reasoned, non-partisan style of governance
in Washington.
When Republicans showed scant interest in cooperating
with Obama at the start, the Obama West Wing gladly reverted to campaign hack mode.
The examples of Chicago-style politics include their delight in public battles with Rush Limbaugh and Fox News and
the U.S Chamber of Commerce. (There was also a semi-public campaign of leaks aimed at Greg Craig, the White House counsel
who fell out of favor.) In private, the Obama team cut an early deal - to the distaste of many congressional Democrats - that
gave favorable terms to the pharmaceutical lobby in exchange for their backing his healthcare plans.
The lesson that many Washington insiders have drawn is that Obama wants to buy off the people he can and bowl over
those he can't. If that perception spreads beyond Washington, this will scuff Obama's brand as a new style of political leader.
5. He's a pushover
If you are going to be known as a fighter, you might as well reap the benefits. But some of the same insider circles
that are starting to view Obama as a bully are also starting to whisper that he's a patsy.
It seems a bit contradictory, to be sure. But it's a perception that began when Obama several times laid down lines
- then let people cross them with seeming impunity. Last summer he told Democrats they better not go home for recess until
a critical health care vote but they blew him off. He told the Israeli government he wanted a freeze in settlements but no
one took him seriously. Even Fox News - which his aides prominently said should not be treated like a real news organization
- then got interview time for its White House correspondent.
In
truth, most of these episodes do not amount to much. But this unflattering storyline would take a more serious turn if Obama
is seen as unable to deliver on his stern warnings in the escalating conflict with Iran over its nuclear program.
He
sees America as another pleasant country on the U.N. roll call, somewhere between Albania and Zimbabwe.
That line belonged to George H.W. Bush, excoriating Democrat Michael Dukakis in
1988. But it highlights a continuing reality: In presidential politics the safe ground has always been to be an American exceptionalist.
Politicians of both parties have embraced the idea that this
country - because of its power and/or the hand of Providence - should be a singular force in the world. It would be hugely
unwelcome for Obama if the perception took root that he is comfortable with a relative decline in U.S. influence or position
in the world.
On this score, the reviews of Obama's Asia trip
were harsh.
His peculiar bow to the emperor of Japan was symbolic. [And remember his deeper bow to the King of Saudi
Arabia, the citadel of Islam!] But his lots-of-velvet, not-much-iron approach to China had substantive implications.
On the left, the budding storyline is that Obama has retreated from human rights
in the name of cynical realism. On the right, it is that he is more interested in being President of the World than President
of the United States, a critique that was heard more in December as he stopped in Oslo to pick up his Nobel Prize and then
in Copenhagen for an international summit on curbing greenhouse gases.
6. President Pelosi
No figure in Barack Obama's Washington,
including Obama, has had more success in advancing his will than the Speaker of the House, despite public approval ratings
that hover in the range of Dick Cheney's. With a mix of tough party discipline and shrewd vote-counting, she passed a version
of the stimulus bill largely written by congressional Democrats, passed climate legislation, and passed her chamber's version
of health care reform. She and anti-war liberals in her caucus are clearly affecting the White House's Afghanistan calculations.
The great hazard for Obama is if Republicans or journalists
conclude - as some already have - that Pelosi's achievements are more impressive than Obama's or come at his expense.
This conclusion seems premature, especially with more legislation ion crucial issues
yet to be written.
But it is clear that Obama has allowed the
Speaker to become more nearly an equal - and far from a subordinate - than many of his predecessors of both parties would
have thought wise.
7. He's in love with the man in the mirror
No one becomes President without a fair share of what the French
call amour propre. Does Obama have more than his share of self-regard?
It's a common theme of Washington buzz that Obama is over-exposed. He gives interviews on his sports obsessions to
ESPN, cracks wise with Leno and Letterman, discusses his fitness with Men's Health, discusses his marriage in a joint interview
with First Lady Michelle Obama for The New York Times. A photo the other day caught him leaving the White House clutching
a copy of GQ featuring himself.
White House aides say making
Obama widely available is the right strategy for communicating with Americans in an era of highly fragmented media.
But,
as the novelty of a new president wears off, the Obama cult of personality risks coming off as mere vanity, unless it is harnessed
to tangible achievements.
That is why the next couple of months
- with financial front, immigration and Afghanistan jostling at center stage - will likely carry a long echo. Obama's best
hope of nipping bad storylines is to replace them with good ones rooted in public perceptions of his effectiveness.
[Senior commentator John F. Harris wrote this report for POLITICO.]